Agriculture, Environment, and Health: Sustainable by Vernon Ruttan

By Vernon Ruttan

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Extra resources for Agriculture, Environment, and Health: Sustainable Development in the 21st Century

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A modified Engel Curve that expresses per capita demand as a function of per capita expenditure as well as own price of the commodity is estimated for each commodity from the historical data of the country. Thus, where: d; is per capita demand for tth commodity, Pi is price of t, and e is total per capita expenditure. b. An Engel Curve for aggregate calorie intake is also estimated from cross-country data. This curve is asymptotic to a level of 4,500 kcal/capita/per day. c. From these Engel Curves we estimate the demands d; for all commodities and AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD SYSTEM SCENARIOS 45 aggregate calories for an estimated expenditure level e and assumed prices p;.

2. Irrigated land use and potential. ) Of course, one would expect that along with expansion of area, yield improvements will also continue to take place. This would reduce the pace of expansion of area. What are the prospects for yield increases? Yield Increases Yields vary considerably across regions depending on agroclimatic resources, input use, and the genetic variety used. It shows that the yields for all cereals are quite high for Europe and North America. 9 While Europe uses 142 kilograms per hectare, the world average of fertilizer use is only 30 kilograms per hectare.

11 persons per hectare. 2 billion. Our projected demands imply roughly 50 percent more calorie intake than assumed in the FAO study. 5). , 1982) do not adequately account for irrigated output. Input intensities do not seem to change in the FAO study on irrigated land across the low, intermediate, or high scenarios. Thus the actual population-supporting capacities must be higher still. The fact that production potential exists does not mean that it will be realized. We need to identify in some detail what is needed to realize these potentials.

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